Finance

The U.S. Treasury bond market has come to receive serious attention in recent trading. When Treasury bonds show action, so does the dollar. If we see a decline in prices for long-term Treasury bonds, the dollar sinks. According to a March 2009 Fed’s Flow of Funds Report, there are $14.5 trillion in Treasury securities, agency securities and mortgage-backed securities outstanding.

Foreign countries are heavily invested in U.S. debt as an investment with China being the first holder of U.S. bonds. More than a few economists believe that if China stops buying them, the U.S. economy would face ever increasing interest rates to make U.S. debt more attractive.

With the current out-of-control spending and huge deficit in government, U.S. Treasury securities’ real value is the focus of more and more attention. China wants to make sure that their assets are safe, and if there is any question that U.S. credibility is in doubt, the option to liquidate some of their U.S. assets is more likely an option.

If foreign countries refuse to buy U.S. debt, the U.S. Treasury’s only other option is to buy Treasury securities, thus increasing the money supply in a dramatic fashion. Interest rates would have to rise in order to attract investors. And, inflation would occur after the Federal Government habitually purchases T-bills. Currently, the Fed has used much money to purchase mortgage-back securities to the tune of $500 billion.

During normal economic times, higher interest rates are a result of the central bank trying to ward off inflation associated with an increased money supply. Yet, there is less of a demand for Treasuries and higher interest rates to entice buyer demand is the only other option. However, this would only accelerate a declining economy deeper into a hole. Higher interest rates only place a greater burden on the population which results in more defaults on mortgage loans and higher consumer debt.

The record-breaking Treasury offerings out of Washington along with the Fed churning out dollars bills is incredible. The floodgate pushed open by the U.S. Treasury is making bond yields soar. Economists are beginning to wonder who will be purchasing these bonds.

Inflationary deficit spending can destroy a nation. The renowned late economist, Milton Friedman warned that “Inflation is a disease, a dangerous and sometimes fatal disease that, if not checked in time, can destroy a society.”

China is the top holder of U.S. debt. Famous economist, Milton Friedman, said that the fate of a nation was ”inseparable from the fate of its currency”. Soaring rates of interest and inflation put an already fragile economy on the alert. Thus, the bond yields are higher as the government’s deficit shows no sign of slowing.